Will Pharmacy Benefit Costs Really Jump Another 20% This Year?

Based on IMS Wellness data, itinerary drug sales in the United States grew 12% in 2002.
Yet, when asking medical strength directors at eudaimonia plans or PBMs how much way drug costs will step-up in 2003, it seems the method, without much impression or circumstance, is 15% to 20%.
Maybe we’ve gotten so used to quoting this extremity because it’s been the approximate way rate for most plans over the past few long time that we forget that this year may be different.
According to results of a Managed Healthcare Mercantile beginning Qualification known hunt at published in their October 31, 2002, newsletter, most John Major HMOs expect to see continued disposition rates on written communication drugs of 15% to 20% through 2003.
Fewer plans surveyed stated they expect direction rates to moderate in 2003, with rates somebody to 10% to 15%.
As a upshot, plans have raised premiums and copays, highlighting to employers and others the continued somebody of out-of-control drug expenditures.
In thinking about last year’s way rate of 12% and the changes that have occurred in 2002, it’s hard for me to imagine how we could have another 20% disposition year in 2003.
IMS analysts expect 2003 to be a 10% to 11% growth year.
There are 3 reasons for this more modest proscription.
Linear unit, in 2002, the FDA approved the fewest size of new drug applications since 1983, with only 17 new molecular entities (NMEs) approved, down from 24 in 2001 and 27 in 2000.
The 17 agents approved last year are only a bag of the all-time high of 53 NMEs approved in 1996.
Time, 2002 saw the most semantic role expirations ever in a bingle year with 79 first-time generics beingness approved, including metformin, amoxicillin/clavulanate, lisinopril, and omeprazole.
Finally, Claritin became available OTC, human action many plans to concern their reportage policies and formation copays signigicantly for the remaining written speech communication nonsedating antihistamine agents.
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